Abe Gates Mortgage Broker
 








This Week’s Market Update

Last Week in Review

As you can see in the chart below, the Jobs Report for February
showed 36,000 jobs lost in February, which was better than the 68,000+
job losses that were expected. Adding to the positive tone of the
report were upward revisions to the prior two month’s reports showing
35,000 fewer jobs lost.  However - helping the numbers were 15,000
temporary census worker hires made by the government. Without these,
actual job losses would have exceeded 50,000 for February.

———————–
Chart: Nonfarm Payrolls

Additionally, the Unemployment Rate remained at 9.7%, better than
expectations of a rise to 9.8%. But a deeper look beyond the headlines
of the report showed what many consider to be the Real Unemployment
Rate to be at 16.8%, a rise from last month’s 16.5%.

This rate includes both discouraged workers - those who are no
longer seeking work at this time - and those who are working part-time
that would rather be “workin’ nine to five” with full time employment,
but are forced to accept part time out of necessity to earn whatever
they can. And just last month, another nearly 500,000 people accepted
part time work, citing economic reasons for doing so.

In related news, Productivity rose by 6.9% during the Fourth quarter
of 2009, up from the previous reading of 6.2%.  This is an encouraging
report, because during an economic recovery, it is normal to see a pick
up in productivity before seeing fresh job creations.  Think about it -
companies may start to see their business pick up, but before making
the commitment of hiring new workers, they will squeeze more
productivity out of their present staff. Job creations may be coming -
but it appears that the labor market recovery will be slow going.

Bonds attempted to rally through the week, but ultimately, improvements in Stocks and positive economic news caused Bonds and home loan rates to end the week around the same levels as where they began.

ALERT! Two
important deadlines are on the horizon: the Fed will stop buying
Mortgage Backed Securities at the end of March (which means home loan
rates may soon be on the rise), and the Homebuyer’s Tax Credit is due
to expire on April 30. If you or any of your friends, family members,
neighbors or colleagues want to learn more about how you can benefit
from the current situation, give me a call or email - I’d be happy to
explain more about the opportunity at hand.

WHILE THE LABOR MARKET HAS BEEN STRUGGLING FOR AWHILE,
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT CERTAIN CAREER PATHS ARE DEFINITELY ON THE RISE!
CHECK OUT THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW FOR MORE DETAILS.

Forecast for the Week

It
will be a quiet week when it comes to economic reports, but with the
healthcare debate heating up in Washington and the Fed’s Mortgage
Backed Securities Purchase program winding down, there are still plenty
of events that could impact the markets and home loan rates.

On the economic report front, Thursday brings another Initial
Jobless Claims Report. Last week’s Initial Jobless Claims met
expectations, but the big news was that the report showed 5.7M people
claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits, which was
an increase of over 207,000 from the prior week. 

On tap for Friday is the Retail Sales Report, and as the most-timely
indicator of broad consumer spending patterns, it is important to see
how the numbers come in. In fact, last week’s Personal Consumption
Expenditure report revealed that during January, consumers made less,
saved less and spent more - but it remains to be seen if the increase
in spending will show up in the Retail Sales Data.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow
out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates
improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds made some improvements
during the week, but the gains were capped by a rally in Stocks and
positive economic data. I’ll be watching closely as always during the
coming week - and please feel free to contact me anytime to learn more,
or discuss your own financial and home loan situation.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Mar 05, 2010)

Japanese Candlestick Chart
Have a great week!!

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