Mortgage markets improved last week on stronger-than-expected economic data and safe haven buying.

The holiday-shortened trading week amplified what should have been modest gains into large ones.

Conforming mortgage rates dropped by about a quarter-percent last week, dropping them near their best levels of the year — and of all-time.

Oddly, mortgage rates are falling as the U.S. dollar weakens. This is atypical because mortgage bonds are repaid in U.S. dollars.  When the value of the dollar is falling, therefore, the value of holding mortgage bonds become less over time. 

Investors are snapping up bonds with fury, however. Partially because of lingering concerns related to Dubai, and partially because of faith in the U.S. economy’s long-term health.

This week, those beliefs could be shaken to the core — specifically because of Friday’s jobs report.

It’s no secret that the economy is growing.  Housing is improving, banks are re-capitalizing, and businesses are making capital investment.  However, employment is lagging.

More than 4 million jobs have been lost this year and the unemployment rate is north of 10 percent for the first time since 1983.  Consumers are worried for their jobs and are guarding their wallets the holiday season as a result. 

The economy can’t grow without consumer spending, though, and that’s why Friday’s job figures will play an especially large role in mortgage markets. If employment data goes positive, stock markets will rally at the expense of mortgage rates.

Conversely, if data looks worse, mortgage rates should dip.

Either way, it’s a gamble.  If you haven’t looked at the benefits of a refinance lately, waiting until Friday to see what happens may be ill-advised.  This is because the last two times mortgage rates fell this low, markets corrected within 48 hours, sending rates soaring higher.

Rates look good today. Consider locking something in before rates have reason to rise.

Home affordability improved this week after the Federal Reserve released its November 3-4, 2009 meeting minutes.

The FOMC Minutes is a companion to the Federal Reserve’s post-meeting press release. It’s released 3 weeks after the Fed adjourns and details the internal debates that shape our nation’s monetary policy.

As compared to the press release, the minutes can be rather lengthy. November’s press release featured 428 words, the minutes offered 6531.

However, this extra level of detail shapes markets and mortgage rates.  With Wall Street unsure about the economy’s path, investors look to our nation’s central bankers for guidance.

The Fed has made several points clear:

1. The economy shows tell-tale signs of improvement
2. Unemployment threatens the recovery
3. Inflation pressures are low, for now

Overall, the FOMC Minutes paint the economy as in a state of measured repair, and under tight federal surveillance.  Investors like this message and, as a result, stock and bonds markets are improving.

If you haven’t checked mortgage rates lately, make a point to do that.  In the wake of the FOMC Minutes, conforming mortgage rates are now hovering near their all-time lows set exactly 1 year ago.

It’s official — home prices are no longer in free fall.

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the Home Price Index posted its since 2007 last quarter.

The news was reported Tuesday.

The Home Price Index is an interesting metric.  It’s huge in its scope, accounting for every home sold in the country that backs a mortgage bound for Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac with two notable exceptions:

1. It doesn’t track new construction
2. It doesn’t track multi-unit homes

Because the Home Price Index makes these specific exclusions, and because it doesn’t account for FHA and jumbo mortgages, some analysts discount the HPI’s relevance.  They prefer the private-sector Case-Shiller Index instead.

Now, to be fair, the Case-Shiller has its own set of flaws, too.

For example, it excludes condos and co-ops, and only tracks sales in 20 cities nationwide.  But, of all the private home valuation models, Case-Shiller is the most well-known and most widely-used.

The Case-Schiller Index was also released Tuesday and the report showed the same results as its government-issued counterpart –  between the second and third quarter.

When the Home Price Index and Case-Shiller Index reach similar conclusions, markets tend to buy-in.  Home buyers should, too.

Home values have likely bottomed and are starting to turn higher, as shown in two separate reports.  High sales volume and dwindling supply are contributing factors.  So are low mortgage rates and a tax credit.

If you’re on the fence about buying a home, at least consider your options.  In 2010, homes are unlikely to be as cheap to buy, or as cheap to finance

Another month, another piece of evidence that the housing market is in recovery.

Existing Home Sales surged in October as the nation’s homebuyers took advantage of low mortgage rates, low list prices, and, for some, a generous tax credit.

Home resales are 23 percent higher versus a year ago and home supply is down to 7 months nationwide.

Inventory hasn’t been this low since February 2007.

The news shouldn’t be surprising, however.  The same real estate trade group that produces the Existing Home Sales report also publishes a monthly report meant to predict future home sales called the Pending Home Sales Index.

Pending Home Sales have been through the roof since mid-May.

So, with pending home sales showing no signs of slowing and 80% of pendings turning intoactual, closed sales, we can expect existing home sales volume to rise in the coming months, too.  Especially because Congress extended the home buyer tax credit to include (1) “Move-up” buyers and, (2) Buyers with higher household incomes.

It’s terrific news for home sellers. The housing market turnaround means higher sale prices and fewer concessions to buyers long-term.

To buyers, on the other hand, the news isn’t so good. The window to find a “deal” appears to be closing quickly.

For today’s home buyers and homeowners that can manage the higher monthly payments, 15-year fixed rate mortgage rates look attractive as compared to comparable 30-year products.

The 15-year/30-year interest rate spread is near its 5-year high.

Despite lower rates, however, homeowners opting for a 15-year fixed mortgage should be prepared for its higher monthly payments.  This is because the principal balance of a 15-year fixed is repaid in half the years as with a standard, 30-year amortizing product.

As compared to 30-year terms, 15-year products repay 3 times as much principal each month.

Versus a 30-year, 15-year fixed mortgages have a few downsides worth noting.  The first is that, because 15-year mortgages are heavy on principal and light on interest, homeowners who itemize tax returns may have to claim a smaller mortgage interest tax deduction at tax time.

Another negative is that the sheer size of the payment.  If you run into fiscal trouble down the road, the only way to reduce the monthly obligation is to refinance into a 30-year product and that costs money to do. 

In other words, be sure you can manage the payments over the long-term before you opt for a 15-year term.   If you can manage it, though, the rewards are tangible.

At today’s rates, a 15-year fixed and 30-year fixed is $230 per $100,000 borrowed.

A conforming mortgage is one that, quite literally, conforms to the mortgage guidelines set forth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

Each year, the government sets the maximum allowable loan size for a conforming mortgage, based on “typical” housing costs nationwide. 

Loans in excess of this amount are typically called “jumbo”.

While home prices increased from 1980 to 2006, so did conforming loan limits.  Since then, however, as home prices have dipped, the conforming loan limit has held.

Now, in 2010, for the 5th consecutive year, the government set $417,000 as the nation’s conforming mortgage loan limit.

The 2010 conforming loan limits, as released by the government, are:

• 1-unit properties : $417,000
• 2-unit properties : $533,850
• 3-unit properties : $645,300
• 4-unit properties : $801,950

But conforming loan limits don’t apply to all U.S. geographies equally.  As a result of various economic stimuli since 2008, the government now considers certain regions around the country ”high-cost” areas.  In these areas, conforming loan limits can range to $729,750.

There are less than 200 such areas nationwide.  The complete list is published on the Fannie Mae website.

APR is an acronym for Annual Percentage Rate.  It’s a government-mandated calculation meant to simplify the comparison of mortgage options.

A loan’s APR can always be found in the top-left corner of the Federal Truth-In-Lending Disclosure.

Because APR is expressed as a percentage, many people confuse it for the loan’s interest rate.  It’s not.  APR represents the total cost of borrowing over the life of a loan.  “Interest rate” is the basis for monthly mortgage repayments.

The main advantage of APR is that it allows an “apples-to-apples” comparison between loan products.

As an example, a 5.000 percent mortgage with origination points and fees will almost certainly have a higher APR than a 5.500 percent mortgage with zero fees.  In this sense, APR can help a borrower determine which loan is least costly long-term.

However, APR is not without its shortcomings.

First, different banks includes different fees into their APR calculations.  By definition, this spoils APR as a choose-between-lenders, apples-to-apples comparison method.

And, second, when calculating APR, “life of the loan” is assumed to be full-term.  When a 30-year mortgage pays off in 7 years or fewer — as most of them do — APR comparisons are rendered moot.

In other words, APR is just one metric to compare mortgages — it’s not the only metric.  The best way to compare your mortgage options is to review all the loan terms together and determine which is most suitable.